Jordan Zebo vs Baki 2: ARES 45 Preview and Prediction

Jordan Zebo and Baissangour “Baki” Chamsoudinov will return to the question they left hanging in Strasbourg: was Zebo’s comeback knockout the beginning of a new order, or did Chamsoudinov show the more repeatable way to win?

The rematch headlines ARES 45 on Friday, November 20, at Adidas Arena in Paris, with Zebo’s welterweight title at stake. The venue’s current event page confirms that the show was moved from November 7 to November 20 and remains scheduled for 7:30 p.m. local time. L’Equipe’s booking report lists Zebo at 11-1, Chamsoudinov at 9-1 and the ARES 170-pound championship as the prize.

That is enough history for a promotional slogan. It is also enough evidence for a genuinely difficult rematch.

What the First Fight Established

Chamsoudinov controlled much of the first three rounds at ARES 35. He crowded Zebo, mixed pressure with takedowns and made the challenger work from defensive positions. Contemporary reporting described the champion as the clear early leader before Zebo changed the fight with his hands in round four. The official ARES result records Zebo’s knockout at 2:08 of that round.

The finish matters, but so does the route to it. Zebo did not need to win every phase. He stayed composed while losing minutes, preserved enough force to remain dangerous and recognized the opening when Chamsoudinov’s pace and defense began to slip. That is a championship skill, not a lucky statistic.

Chamsoudinov’s early work is equally important. He proved he could close distance on Zebo, finish takedowns and bank rounds. In a rematch, he does not have to invent a new game. He has to make the old one more sustainable and safer during the transitions back to striking range.

Zebo Has Kept Building

Zebo has competed twice since winning the belt. He survived a difficult first defense against Ramazan Mustafaev and took a split decision after five rounds, then submitted former UFC welterweight Andre Fialho with a rear-naked choke late in round four. Those results are listed in his current Sherdog fight history.

His 11 victories now include two knockouts, two submissions and seven decisions. The distribution fits what the first Chamsoudinov fight showed: Zebo is accustomed to solving long fights, but he carries enough power and opportunistic grappling to punish a mistake before the scorecards.

Chamsoudinov’s current record consists of five knockout or TKO wins and four decisions. He has not won by submission as a professional, even though his wrestling and top control are central to his offense. His aim is usually to use takedowns to dictate geography, accumulate damage and force opponents to carry his weight, not to chase low-percentage submissions.

There is also a legitimate availability question. Chamsoudinov’s coach and family said he entered the first fight with a cruciate-ligament injury in his left knee, and L’Equipe later reported that the injury occurred about six weeks before the bout. The outlet’s rematch report says he subsequently underwent surgery and rehabilitation.

That information should not be used to erase Zebo’s win. Chamsoudinov chose to compete, and his own team explicitly declined to offer the injury as an excuse. It does, however, make the rematch harder to price. He has not fought since the operation, so there is no post-surgery performance from which to infer current movement, endurance or wrestling function. The appropriate analytical adjustment is greater uncertainty, not a medical prediction.

The Technical Hinge

The central question is what happens after Chamsoudinov’s first successful takedown. If he can connect attempts, hold Zebo on the fence and keep the champion from resetting in open space, his control game can reproduce the first three rounds. Body work in the clinch would also make Zebo’s late acceleration more difficult.

Zebo’s best answer is not necessarily perfect takedown defense. It is efficient defense: make Chamsoudinov complete multiple actions, stand without exposing his back and force increasingly long striking exchanges as the fight develops. Zebo has already shown he can remain dangerous in the championship rounds. His late submission of Fialho added another reason for Chamsoudinov to value position over hurried damage.

The challenger’s clearest danger comes on the exit. In the first meeting, his pressure created success until Zebo found the space and timing to hurt him. Chamsoudinov must finish exchanges behind defense rather than assuming a completed takedown or clinch break has ended the sequence.

Zebo’s risk is more obvious on the scorecards. Patience can become a deficit. If he gives away three rounds while waiting for fatigue or a clean counter, a finish may again become his only path. The champion needs to make Chamsoudinov pay earlier for entries with short punches, knees and immediate re-attacks.

JMA prediction

Baissangour Chamsoudinov by decision. Structured-evidence forecast: 51–55%, midpoint 52% (Lean). Official high-confidence pick: no.

This is effectively a toss-up. Chamsoudinov’s wrestling and first-fight control are the most repeatable phase advantage either man has shown against the other. Zebo’s round-four knockout, two subsequent title defenses and the uncertainty around Chamsoudinov’s first post-surgery appearance prevent a stronger pick.

The forecast flips toward Zebo if Chamsoudinov cannot sustain repeated entries or shows a meaningful decline after the opening rounds. It strengthens for Chamsoudinov if the official weigh-in and fight-week material confirm a routine return, although public training footage alone would not establish medical readiness. No reliable current two-way market was available at the data cutoff.

How to attend

ARES 45 takes place Friday, November 20, at Adidas Arena in Paris. The venue lists a 7:30 p.m. local start and official tickets from €39. Tickets bought for the original November 7 date remain valid after the postponement; the venue directs unavailable buyers to their original point of sale for refund requests.

The first fight produced an upset because both men imposed something real. Chamsoudinov controlled the early contest. Zebo controlled the moment that decided it. ARES 45 is worth watching because neither truth cancels the other.